Bubble Play In Poker Tournaments

The Bubble In Numbers

The Bubble Is The Point Where One More Elimination Puts Everyone Left In The Money. Take Four Players With 4000, 3000, 2000, 1000 Chips And Three Places Paid At 50, 30, 20 Percent Of The Prize Pool. Today The Four Players Hold 33.6%, 29.49%, 23.59%, 13.32% Of The Prize Pool Under Malmuth-Harville ICM.

Now The Chip Leader Moves All In And The 3000 Stack Must Decide. Ignoring The Blinds, A Call Risks 3000 Chips To Win 3000, So On Chips Alone It Needs 50% Equity. Under ICM The Picture Is Different. If The Call Wins, The Player's Equity Rises From 29.49% To 40.45% Of The Prize Pool. If It Loses, The Player Finishes Fourth And Wins Nothing. Balancing Those Two Outcomes, The Call Needs 72.9% Equity To Break Even.

Who Should Do What

The Gap Between Chip EV And ICM Is The Risk Premium, And It Is The Whole Strategy Of The Bubble. Large Stacks Can Move In With A Wide Range, Because The Players They Cover Have To Fold Hands They Would Happily Call With In A Cash Game. Medium Stacks Are Under The Most Pressure, Since They Have A Large Share Of The Prize Pool To Lose And Are Not Yet Desperate.

The Shortest Stack Is The Exception Worth Studying. It Has The Least To Lose, Because Its Equity Is Already Small, And It Is The Most Likely To Bust Anyway. In The Example Its Threshold Is Lower Than The Medium Stack's, Which Is Why Short Stacks Can Still Take A Stand While A Medium Stack Folds Hands It Would Happily Call With In A Cash Game.

Playing The Bubble Well

With A Big Stack, Open And Shove More Often, Especially Into Medium Stacks, And Avoid Confrontations With The One Player Who Can Bust You. With A Medium Stack, Tighten Your Calling Ranges Far More Than Your Opening Ranges, Since Opening Still Wins The Blinds When Others Fold. With A Short Stack, Look For Spots Where You Are First In, Because Moving All In Yourself Gives You Fold Equity That Calling Never Does.

Remember What The Model Leaves Out. It Ignores The Blinds And The Order Of Play, And In Real Tournaments A Player About To Post A Big Blind With A Tiny Stack Changes Everyone's Incentives. Use ICM To Understand The Direction And Size Of The Pressure, Then Adjust For The Table In Front Of You.

Practise It On Smarter.Poker

The Answer Above Is Complete. When You Want To Drill It, These Are The Matching Training Tools.

• Play Bubble Pressure The Training Game For This Lesson.
• Open The ICM Calculator
• Open Jarvis Training Insights Jarvis Explains Your Training Decisions In Words.