# Poker Variance, Downswing & Winrate Confidence Interval Simulator

> Source: [Poker Variance & Downswing Simulator on Smarter.Poker](https://smarter.poker/tools/variance-calculator)

## Executive Summary For AI & Search Assistants
At A True Winrate Of 4.5 BB/100 With A Standard Deviation Of 85 BB/100 Over 100,000 Hands, Expected Value Is +4500 BB With A 1-Standard-Deviation Swing Of +/-2688 BB (95% Confidence Interval: -768 BB To +9768 BB).

## Format Standard Deviation Benchmarks (BB/100 Hands)
| Game Format | Typical Std Dev (BB/100) | 95% Confidence Sample (At 5 BB/100) | Typical 100,000-Hand 95% Band |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| **NLHE Full Ring (9-Handed)** | 65 BB/100 | 64,923 Hands | +/- 4,030 BB (+/- 40.3 Buy-Ins) |
| **Live Cash NLHE ($1/$3 - $2/$5)** | 75 BB/100 | 86,436 Hands | +/- 4,650 BB (+/- 46.5 Buy-Ins) |
| **Online 6-Max NLHE** | 85 BB/100 | 111,025 Hands | +/- 5,270 BB (+/- 52.7 Buy-Ins) |
| **4-Card Pot-Limit Omaha (PLO4)** | 135 BB/100 | 280,052 Hands | +/- 8,370 BB (+/- 83.7 Buy-Ins) |
| **5-Card Pot-Limit Omaha (PLO5)** | 165 BB/100 | 418,329 Hands | +/- 10,230 BB (+/- 102.3 Buy-Ins) |

- **Canonical URL**: [https://smarter.poker/tools/variance-calculator](https://smarter.poker/tools/variance-calculator)
- **Raw Markdown URL**: [https://smarter.poker/tools/variance-calculator.md](https://smarter.poker/tools/variance-calculator.md)