Counting Outs And The Rule Of 2 And 4
An Out Is A Card That Improves Your Hand To The Likely Winner; From The Flop, 9 Outs Hit By The River 35% Of The Time, And The Rule Of 4 Estimates That As 36%.
Math Lesson From Smarter.Poker, Updated
Exact Odds For Common Draws
On The Flop You Can See Your Two Cards And Three On The Board, So 47 Cards Are Unseen. On The Turn 46 Are Unseen. The Chance Of Hitting On The Next Card Is Your Outs Divided By The Unseen Cards, And The Chance Of Hitting By The River From The Flop Is One Minus The Chance Of Missing Twice In A Row.
| Draw | Outs | Next Card | By The River | Rule Of 2 | Rule Of 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flush Draw | 9 | 19.1% | 35% | 18% | 36% |
| Open Ended Straight Draw | 8 | 17% | 31.5% | 16% | 32% |
| Two Overcards | 6 | 12.8% | 24.1% | 12% | 24% |
| Gutshot Straight Draw | 4 | 8.5% | 16.5% | 8% | 16% |
| Flush Draw Plus Open Ender | 15 | 31.9% | 54.1% | 30% | 60% |
The Rule Of 2 And 4
The Rule Is A Shortcut For The Table. Multiply Your Outs By 2 For One Card To Come And By 4 For Two Cards To Come. For A Flush Draw On The Turn It Gives 18% Against An Exact 19.6%. For A Flush Draw On The Flop With Two Cards To Come It Gives 36% Against An Exact 35%.
It Overstates Big Draws. A Flush Draw With An Open Ended Straight Draw Has 15 Outs, And The Rule Of 4 Says 60% When The Exact Figure Is 54.1%. With Many Outs, Subtract A Little From The Rule Of 4, Or Use The Exact Table Above.
Remember That The Rule Of 4 Assumes You Will See Both Cards. If Your Opponent Can Bet Again On The Turn, You May Have To Pay Twice Or Fold Before The River, So For A Call On The Flop The One Card Figure Is Often The Honest One To Compare With Your Pot Odds.
Counting Outs Honestly
Not Every Out Is Clean. A Card That Completes Your Straight But Also Puts A Fourth Card Of One Suit On The Board May Give An Opponent A Flush. A Card That Pairs Your Overcard May Still Lose To Two Pair. Discount Outs That Could Make A Better Hand For Your Opponent, And Count Only The Ones That Are Likely To Win.
Also Count The Outs Your Opponent Has Against You. A Made Hand Facing A Draw Is Often Less Far Ahead Than It Feels, And The Same Table Tells You How Often The Draw Gets There.
Then Turn The Percentage Into A Decision. Compare The Chance Of Hitting With The Price Of The Call, Add Any Money You Expect To Win Later When You Hit, And Subtract The Money You Might Lose When You Hit And Are Still Behind. Outs Are The Start Of The Calculation, Not The End Of It.
Keep Learning
- Pot Odds: How To Know If A Call Pays
- Implied Odds: When A Draw Can Call
- Counting Poker Hand Combinations
- How To Read Board Texture
Poker Terms In This Lesson
Practise It On Smarter.Poker
The Answer Above Is Complete. When You Want To Drill It, These Are The Matching Training Tools.
- Play Frequency Math The Training Game For This Lesson.
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