Implied Odds: When A Draw Can Call
Implied Odds Are The Chips You Expect To Win On Later Streets When Your Draw Hits: A Flush Draw On The Turn Facing A Half Pot Bet Needs About 56 More Chips From Later Betting, Per 100 In The Pot, To Make The Call Break Even.
Math Lesson From Smarter.Poker, Updated
Why Pot Odds Are Not Enough
With One Card To Come, A Flush Draw Hits 19.6% Of The Time. Facing A Half Pot Bet, Pot Odds Ask For 25%. On Pot Odds Alone The Call Loses. But When The Flush Arrives You Will Often Win More Than What Is In The Pot Now, Because Your Opponent May Call A Bet Or Bet Again On The River. Those Future Chips Are The Implied Odds.
How Much You Need To Win Later
The Formula Is The Call Times The Chance Of Missing, Divided By The Chance Of Hitting, Minus What Is Already In The Middle. With A Pot Of 100, A Bet Of 50 And A Flush Draw On The Turn, The Answer Is 55.6 Chips. You Need To Win About That Much More, On Average, On The River When You Hit, For The Call To Break Even.
That Is More Than Half The Size Of The Original Pot. It Is Realistic Only When Stacks Are Deep Enough For That Bet To Happen, When Your Opponent's Hand Is Strong Enough To Pay It, And When Your Flush Is Not Obvious. A Draw That Completes On A Board Where Everyone Can See It Rarely Gets Paid In Full.
| Draw | Outs | Hits | Extra Needed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flush Draw | 9 | 19.6% | 55.6 |
| Open Ended Straight Draw | 8 | 17.4% | 87.5 |
| Two Overcards | 6 | 13% | 183.3 |
| Gutshot Straight Draw | 4 | 8.7% | 375 |
What Makes Implied Odds Good Or Bad
Deep Stacks, A Disguised Draw And An Opponent Who Cannot Let Go Of A Strong Hand Make Implied Odds Large. Small Pairs Hoping To Flop A Set And Suited Connectors Hoping To Make A Straight Rely On Exactly This, Which Is Why They Are Better Hands In Deep Cash Games Than In Short Stacked Tournaments.
Shallow Stacks, An Obvious Draw And A Cautious Opponent Make Implied Odds Small. So Do Draws To Hands That Are Not The Best, Such As A Low Flush Draw When A Higher Flush Is Possible. Those Draws Carry Reverse Implied Odds: When They Hit And Lose, They Lose A Big Pot.
Use The Table As A Sanity Check. If The Extra You Need Is Larger Than Your Opponent Could Plausibly Pay, Fold. If It Is Well Within What They Will Pay When They Have A Strong Hand, The Call Can Be Right Even When The Pot Odds Say No.
Keep Learning
- Pot Odds: How To Know If A Call Pays
- Counting Outs And The Rule Of 2 And 4
- Stack To Pot Ratio (SPR) Explained
- Expected Value (EV) In Poker
Poker Terms In This Lesson
Practise It On Smarter.Poker
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