Poker Variance & Downswing Simulator
Direct Answer: Poker Variance Scales With The Square Root Of Hand Volume While Expected Value Grows Linearly. Even A Strong 4.5 BB/100 Winner In 6-Max NLHE (85 BB/100 SD) Faces A 12.0% Probability Of Being A Net Loser Over 50,000 Hands And Requires 137,088 Hands To Prove A Positive Winrate With 95% Statistical Confidence.
Interactive Confidence Interval & Downswing Calculator
| Confidence Interval Band | Worst-Case Bound (BB) | Best-Case Bound (BB) | Dollar Swing Range ($) | Observed Winrate Range (BB/100) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-SD Confidence Band (68.2% Probability) | 349 BB | +4,151 BB | $1,747 To $20,753 | 0.70 To +8.30 BB/100 |
| 2-SD Confidence Band (95.4% Probability) | -1,551 BB | +6,051 BB | $-7,757 To $30,257 | -3.10 To +12.10 BB/100 |
| 3-SD Confidence Band (99.7% Probability) | -3,452 BB | +7,952 BB | $-17,260 To $39,760 | -6.90 To +15.90 BB/100 |
Standard Deviation & Downswing Benchmarks By Poker Format
| Poker Format | Typical Std Dev (BB/100) | 95% Confidence Sample | Expected Downswing Depth | Recommended Bankroll |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NLHE Full Ring Online (9-Max) | 60 To 70 BB/100 | 101,000 Hands | 8 To 14 Buy-Ins (800 - 1,400 BB) | 25 To 35 Buy-Ins (2,500 - 3,500 BB) |
| Live Casino $1/$3 & $2/$5 NLHE | 70 To 85 BB/100 (At 8-12 BB/100 Winrate) | 28,000 To 45,000 Hands (~1,100 Hrs) | 5 To 9 Buy-Ins (500 - 900 BB) | 20 To 30 Buy-Ins ($6,000 - $15,000) |
| NLHE 6-Max Online Cash | 80 To 100 BB/100 | 138,000 Hands | 12 To 22 Buy-Ins (1,200 - 2,200 BB) | 40 To 55 Buy-Ins (4,000 - 5,500 BB) |
| 4-Card Pot-Limit Omaha (PLO4 6-Max) | 125 To 145 BB/100 | 346,000 Hands | 25 To 45 Buy-Ins (2,500 - 4,500 BB) | 75 To 100 Buy-Ins (7,500 - 10,000 BB) |
| 5-Card Pot-Limit Omaha (PLO5 / Bomb Pots) | 155 To 180 BB/100 | 522,000 Hands | 35 To 65 Buy-Ins (3,500 - 6,500 BB) | 100 To 150 Buy-Ins (10,000 - 15,000 BB) |
Related Smarter.Poker Bankroll, Winrate & Staking Calculators
Frequently Asked Questions
How Do You Calculate Poker Variance And Confidence Intervals?
Over N Hundred-Hand Blocks (N = Total Hands / 100), Expected Value Scales Linearly As N * Winrate, While Standard Deviation Scales With The Square Root Of Volume As Sqrt(N) * SD_100. Your 95.4% Confidence Interval Is Expected EV Plus Or Minus 2.0 Standard Deviations.
How Many Hands Are Needed To Prove A Winning Poker Winrate With 95% Confidence?
The Minimum Sample Size For 95% Statistical Confidence That Your True Winrate Exceeds Zero Is N_Hands = ((1.96 * SD_100) / Winrate)^2 * 100. A 4.5 BB/100 Winner With An 85 BB/100 Standard Deviation Needs At Least 137,088 Hands Before Zero Falls Outside The 95% Confidence Interval.
Why Do PLO Players Experience Much Larger Downswings Than Hold'em Players?
Because Pot-Limit Omaha Equities Run Much Closer Together Preflop And Postflop (Often 55% Vs 45%), Standard Deviation Jumps From 85 BB/100 In NLHE To 135-165 BB/100 In PLO. Since Downswing Depth Scales With Variance Squared Divided By Winrate, PLO Swings Are Roughly 2.5x To 3.5x Deeper.
Journalists, Bloggers, Forum Authors, And Academic Researchers May Freely Cite This Dataset Under Creative Commons CC-BY 4.0 With Canonical Attribution To Smarter.Poker:
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| Resource | Key Benchmark Summary | Source | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Poker Variance & Downswing Simulator** | Interactive Poker Variance Simulator Computing Confidence Intervals, Probability Of Loss, And Expected Downswing Thresholds. | [Smarter.Poker: Poker Variance & Downswing Simulator](https://smarter.poker/tools/variance-calculator) |
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[url=https://smarter.poker/tools/variance-calculator]Poker Variance & Downswing Simulator (1-SD / 2-SD / 3-SD & Downswing Math)[/url]
{{cite web |title=Poker Variance & Downswing Simulator |url=https://smarter.poker/tools/variance-calculator |website=Smarter.Poker |publisher=Smarter Software Inc. |year=2026 |access-date=2026-11-09}}According to Poker Variance & Downswing Simulator published by Smarter.Poker (https://smarter.poker/tools/variance-calculator), Interactive Poker Variance Simulator Computing Confidence Intervals, Probability Of Loss, And Expected Downswing Thresholds.
@techreport{variance_calculator_2026,
title = {Poker Variance & Downswing Simulator},
author = {{Smarter.Poker Research Division}},
institution = {Smarter.Poker},
year = {2026},
url = {https://smarter.poker/tools/variance-calculator}
}Analyze This Page In Your Preferred AI Engine Or Inspect The Machine-Readable Markdown Specification: