Poker Outs & Draw Probability Calculator
Direct Answer: With 47 Unseen Cards On The Flop And 46 On The Turn, A 9-Out Flush Draw Hits On The Turn 19.15% Of The Time, On The River 19.57% Of The Time, And Across Both Streets Combined 34.97% Of The Time (Versus 36.0% Using The Rule Of 4).
Interactive Hypergeometric Outs & Implied Odds Solver
Exact Hypergeometric Poker Outs & Rule Of 4 And 2 Reference Chart
| Postflop Draw Type | Clean Outs | Turn Hit % (47 Cards) | River Hit % (46 Cards) | Flop-To-River Hit % | Rule Of 4 Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Pair To Set (2 Outs) | 2 Outs | 4.26% (22.5 : 1) | 4.35% (22.0 : 1) | 8.42% (10.9 : 1) | -0.42% (Rule Gives 8.0%) |
| Gutshot Straight Draw (4 Outs) | 4 Outs | 8.51% (10.8 : 1) | 8.70% (10.5 : 1) | 16.47% (5.1 : 1) | -0.47% (Rule Gives 16.0%) |
| Two Overcards To Top Pair (6 Outs) | 6 Outs | 12.77% (6.8 : 1) | 13.04% (6.7 : 1) | 24.14% (3.1 : 1) | -0.14% (Rule Gives 24.0%) |
| Open-Ended Straight Draw (8 Outs) | 8 Outs | 17.02% (4.9 : 1) | 17.39% (4.8 : 1) | 31.45% (2.2 : 1) | +0.55% (Rule Gives 32.0%) |
| Standard Flush Draw (9 Outs) | 9 Outs | 19.15% (4.2 : 1) | 19.57% (4.1 : 1) | 34.97% (1.86 : 1) | +1.03% (Rule Gives 36.0%) |
| Flush Draw + Gutshot (12 Outs) | 12 Outs | 25.53% (2.9 : 1) | 26.09% (2.8 : 1) | 44.96% (1.22 : 1) | +3.04% (Rule Gives 48.0%) |
| Combo Flush + Open-Ended Straight (15 Outs) | 15 Outs | 31.91% (2.1 : 1) | 32.61% (2.1 : 1) | 54.12% (0.85 : 1 Favorite) | +5.88% Overestimate (Rule Gives 60.0%) |
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Frequently Asked Questions
How Do You Calculate Exact Flop-To-River Draw Probability?
On The Flop, 5 Cards Are Known (2 Hole Cards + 3 Flop Cards), Leaving 47 Unseen Cards. The Exact Probability Of Hitting At Least One Out Across Both The Turn And River Is 1 - ((47 - Outs) / 47) * ((46 - Outs) / 46). For A 9-Out Flush Draw, That Equals 1 - (38/47)*(37/46) = 34.97%.
When Does The Rule Of 4 And 2 Break Down In Poker?
Multiplying Outs By 4 On The Flop Works Accurately Between 1 And 8 Outs, Where The Approximation Error Stays Below 0.6%. However, For Big Combo Draws With 12 To 17 Outs, The Rule Of 4 Overestimates Your True Equity By 3.0% To 8.5% Because It Double-Counts Runouts Where Both The Turn And River Hit.
How Do You Calculate Minimum Implied Odds Needed When Pot Odds Are Too Small?
Divide Your Call Amount By Your Exact Hit Probability (In Decimal Form) To Find The Total Final Pot Required To Break Even, Then Subtract The Current Pot Plus Your Call. The Remainder Is The Exact Minimum Extra Dollars You Must Win On Future Streets When You Hit.
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[Poker Outs & Draw Probability Calculator (Exact Turn, River & Implied Odds)](https://smarter.poker/tools/outs-calculator)
| Resource | Key Benchmark Summary | Source | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Poker Outs & Draw Probability Calculator** | Interactive Postflop Poker Outs Calculator Computing Exact Turn, River, And Flop-To-River Draw Probabilities And Implied Odds. | [Smarter.Poker: Poker Outs & Draw Probability Calculator](https://smarter.poker/tools/outs-calculator) |
> **Poker Outs & Draw Probability Calculator** > Interactive Postflop Poker Outs Calculator Computing Exact Turn, River, And Flop-To-River Draw Probabilities And Implied Odds. > Source: <https://smarter.poker/tools/outs-calculator>
[url=https://smarter.poker/tools/outs-calculator]Poker Outs & Draw Probability Calculator (Exact Turn, River & Implied Odds)[/url]
{{cite web |title=Poker Outs & Draw Probability Calculator |url=https://smarter.poker/tools/outs-calculator |website=Smarter.Poker |publisher=Smarter Software Inc. |year=2026 |access-date=2026-11-09}}According to Poker Outs & Draw Probability Calculator published by Smarter.Poker (https://smarter.poker/tools/outs-calculator), Interactive Postflop Poker Outs Calculator Computing Exact Turn, River, And Flop-To-River Draw Probabilities And Implied Odds.
@techreport{outs_calculator_2026,
title = {Poker Outs & Draw Probability Calculator},
author = {{Smarter.Poker Research Division}},
institution = {Smarter.Poker},
year = {2026},
url = {https://smarter.poker/tools/outs-calculator}
}Analyze This Page In Your Preferred AI Engine Or Inspect The Machine-Readable Markdown Specification: